A lot has been written about "Year 2000" computer software problem or popularly known as Y2K bug and its effect all over the world. But a lot has been left unsaid about its status and effects in Nepal. We are far from the industrialized nations in every aspect of computerization. But the picture is not rosy as it seems. No matter which way the problem manifests itself, the effects it will have on all the sectors of Nepal is unimaginable. The threat is hanging over financial institutions, telco, aviation, medical, power etc. Some of the companies in Nepal are already working on it where as some companies are not even aware of it.
Telco giant is in trouble: Nepal Telecommunications Corporation, NTC, one of the giants of Nepal will suffer most due to heavy financial loss. As the telecommunication equipments are very expensive fixing the glitches amounts in millions leave alone replacing them.
NTC has already tested S12 (ALIC) for Y2K compliance and result were satisfactory but supplier from Alcatel (Belgium) fears that year 2000 may not be recognized as leap year and there will be no protection of billing tape against overwrites. The correction cost will be about BEF 16,450,000.
The another S12 (J-Rack) is not Y2K compliant and incurring cost for fixing is about BEF 4,415,000 per node per termination. The EWSD (SR7.1) manufactured by Siemens is not Y2K compliant but effects will be minor. Similarly control equipment (OCB 181) of E10B by Alcatel has to be replaced in their switching system with new version OCB 283 with the incurring loss of FF 5524000. If this is not done the billing and backup tapes prepared before year 2000 can not be read after the change of the century.
The effect on C-DOT exchanges (RAX 256) is yet to be conformed but as these exchanges are not used for the billing of the trunk calls the effect will be minimum. The Telex exchange (768 lines) of Plessey is Y2K non-compliant due to which NTC is considering to connect all the telex subscribers to telex exchange of British Telecom. The equipment used in transmission are Y2K compliant where as assessment of power equipment are yet to come. The software modules of the billing system like exchange data conversion, file in database, reports on indexed data and system dates are all Y2K non-compliant. General hardware and software which are not Y2K compliant are minor replacement for NTC.
Banks at work: All most all the major banks of Nepal have already assessed the impact of Y2K. The LAN based networks basically have no problems with Y2K compliant hardware and software. The financial loss of Rs 100 thousand per unit of PC is obvious where as to change a major banking software may cost upto Rs 50 million. The foreign collaborated banks are much more equipped to face the situation than the local banks. All of them have dumped all the old computers and changed the non-compliant banking software.
Nepal Bank Ltd. is using Micro-banker which is used by seven branches of the valley for saving, current, loans and fixed deposit is not Y2K compliant. The Day Book, which is designed on COBOL and used in 4 branches in the valley, is also vulnerable due to absence of the source code as it is not possible to make it Y2K compliant.
Many softwares have been developed by the bank for its requirement. Process is under way to make softwares Y2K compliant developed in-house. The CITI bank telex is not been upgraded as the supplier gave no response till date. Reuters and most of the fax are safe. The BIOS and roll over check have been given due respect. As well as a tool has been used to check Y2K compatibility. There are total 103 computers in Nepal Bank Ltd out of which 26 are fully compliant and 33 computers are to be replaced where as 44 computers will be upgraded.
Aviation: One of the highest threat looms over the air of Nepal due to Y2K. Civil Aviation Authority of Nepal (CAAN), seems to be not doing much work in this regard except sending letters to vendors, sending few staffs for training and forming committees. The assessment of Y2K in different fields of civil aviation like communication, navigation, surveillance, security and rescue are to be done. The VSAT and surveillance systems (radar, control, voice recorder) are Y2K compliant as reported by the vendor and donor agency. But all other systems have seen only the inventory.
The national flag carrier, Royal Nepal Airlines, is doing better. As there are 2 Boeing 757, letters have been sent to the company for the conformation. RA is using HolmesCk for testing and HolmesFX for fixing BIOS in hardwares. Reservation system is already Y2K compliant as managed by SITA. Most of the travel agencies are already compliant with Global Distribution Systems.
Power: Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) is using computers and embedded microchips in different areas of applications. The malfunctioning of these areas may result in interruption of supply of power. Power plant like Marsangdi, Kulekhani I/II, Trisuli that has been modified with latest control system and Multifuel power plant are using latest microprocessor based control system. They may shut down the power plants due to the Y2K problem. Direct impact of this will be collapse of the power system and for restoring of the power system it may have some difficulties due to the clock setting problem.
132KV transmission lines in Eastern sector, Butwal to Mahendranagar, 66KV switch gear recently installed in Patan, Siuchatar, Chabahil and Bhaktapur may have Y2K problem as these systems are using the microprocessor based protection system. The pilot scheme for computerized billing at Kathmandu west branch has a workstation which don’t meet Y2K compliance.
Going by the lines of concerned higher authorities government believes that Y2K is an extremely important problem that requires urgent attention. Some guidelines like awareness raising, understading, assessment, planning, implementation, testing and contingency plan have been formulated. Some follow up programs are also going on.Although time is short for completing all these activities but most of the national entities are working on it.
A telecommunication system consists of 4 major components i.e. exchange providing switching, billing and control functions, transmission providing link between exchanges, the access network providing link from the exchanges to the subscriber terminal equipment and the set of power and air-conditioning equipment. The subscriber terminal equipment may be in the form of a telephone set or a fax machine or a computer etc.
Traditionally copper pairs in the form of copper cables have been used in the access network and so the terminology cables network is also used to mean the network that is more commonly called access network these days. However, the development of wireless local loop technology for the last meter link to the subscriber has rendered the traditional concept of cable network a kind of misnomer and so the concept of access network has been more relevant.
Talking about the wireless local loop technology, the ûpoint to point single channel radio systems operating at VHF and UHF frequencies and more commonly known as VHF and UHF sets and the analog multi-access systems operating at VHF and that were deployed by NTC before and digital multi-access systems operating at UHF and serving a huge bulk of rural subscribers now are also a kind of WLL systems in a broad sense. However, specific WLL systems are not yet in operation in Nepal. Nepal Telecom Corporation has conceived the plan to introduce such systems quite a few years back, however the realization has been lacking to date. Beside cable network and wireless local loop, optical fibers are also getting wide use in the modern access network in the form of Fiber To The Curb (FTTC) or even Fiber To The Home (FTTH).
The main tasks of planning access network of a telecommunication system can be said to be comprised of demand prediction, selection of technology and policy decision. Demand prediction changes with respect to space and time. False demand may surface due to low tariff of telephone calls or telephone hoarding. Furthermore, the telephone demand has a strong correlation with the overall economic growth of a nation . Selection of a technology is dependent upon, among others , long term economy of applied technology, service area coverage, quality, reliability and maintainability of the service and the deployment time.
Since the investment in the access network equipment is a high percent ranging from about 40 to 50 percent of the total investment of the planned telecommunication system, it is extremely important to plan the access network in a very wise manner. This is more so with the strategy of the government to introduce competition in the telecom sector.
Cost considerations are major factors while selecting the appropriate technology. In case of access network, the traditional copper network is distance dependent and is more economical to cater for subscribers that are located near the exchanges. It is also economical for concentrated demand. Since the cost of wireless local loop is not distance-sensitive, it becomes more economical to deploy this technology for more remote places having sparse and scattered population and subsequently the thin subscriber base. Since the technology based on wireless has been developing and subsequently the cost decreasing fast , its use is expected to grow in the future. Initial investment in the fiber optics technology is higher but may become more economical in the longer run.
One of the essential components of network planning is, as mentioned above, demand forecast. Demand , in its turn, depends upon the tariff to be applied. Since the tariff of NTC has been in vogue for quite a number of years without change while the tariff of other basic services such as electricity and water has increased manifold during the same period, it is just natural to expect that in the near future it will get changed. That will have a substantial impact on the actual demand for telephones.
Another aspect of the existing policy is also equally important in the planning of access network. In case of NTC, initial planning of access network, more commonly termed as planning of cable network was carried out indifferently with respect to distance from the exchanges. So the cable network was also extended upto a distance of even above 12 kms from the exchange and the service from the technical viewpoint was far from satisfactory. The existing policy on the extension of cable network limits the distance of the last point of cable network from two aspects, namely the radial distance from the exchange dependent , in its turn , from the capacity of exchanges in question and the maximum transmission loss of cable at the last point. Lately, this criterion has also been rendered obsolete due to both liberalization and introduction of competition in the telecom sector which implies a cautious approach for any kind of spending by the service providers , and the improvement of technology which allows for coverage of bigger service area.
It is in the context of above findings that NTC has been thinking of incorporating the following policy in respect to planning of access network in the telecom sector:
Review the tariff with an immediate effect to allow for a more realistic demand of telecom services.
Review the policy of extension of access network with due regard to impending competition with the private operators.
Make the best use of existing network and select the most appropriate technology for new network based on long term economy, service area coverage, demand requirement etc. Keep the balance between obligation of providing telecom service and financial viability and subsequently strive to achieve sustainable development of telecom service with efficient management of available resources.
Finally it cannot be overemphasized that ad hoc access network planning for satisfying the will of a few influential lot will be detrimental not only to the Nepal Telecom Corporation but also to the country, as a whole, because telecommunications has a significant weightage in the overall economy of a country.
(The authors are Engineers at NTC. The article is a synopsis from the paper presented in the sixth convention of engineers organized by Nepal Engineers Association.)
With the noble effort to uplift the millions of poor people of the rural hinterland, government of Bangladesh started a unique banking system called Grameen Bank (GB). Defying the traditional concept of banking or theory of bankable with a collatel system for credit, at GB, credit is the poverty. It provides credit (to the poor people) based on mutual trust, accountability, participation and creativity. Now it is serving as a catalyst for the over all development of socio-economic conditions of the poor.
Grameen Bank operates in 35,000 villages through 1,100 branches and 12,000 workers. Here, women can borrow money of about $100-200 without collateral so that she could do business of her own enabling her to make a living and pay off loans. Now GB had rekindled hope of the poor people allowing the poorest of the poor to stand up on their feet throughout the rural areas of Bangladesh.
In today’s digital world, country’s growth can only happen with the proper utilization of information technology. Telecommunication including Internet are the vehicles to harness the pursuits of the millions of the poor people. In a pursuit to help the rural and poor people of Bangladesh in the social ladder for respectable life, GB has many feathers in its cap. Grameen Telecom, Grameen Cybernet, Grameem Communication are some of the prime examples which shows how information revolution can change the faces of the poor people in a country.
Grameen Phone: Till today, in most of the developing countries cellular phones are a luxury. But in Bangladesh, cellular phones are being used also for income generation by the poor, i.e., a telephone is treated as a “cow” as well. A woman borrows, say, $300 from the Bank and purchase a handset and sell telephone services to villagers, making a living and paying off her loan. It is creating a self-employment opportunity in each village and provide access to telephones to all.
Women with a cellular phone in hand have given ripples in the highly stratified villages with a great deal of social impact. One of the cause of successes of Grameen Phone may be huge participation of women. As 94% of the borrowers of GB are women, Grameen Phone are being retailed by women as well. In Bangladesh most of the men go outside from their villages to cities or trade or even foreign countries. The women feels comfortable to go to other women to make phone calls.
Grameen Phone is owned mainly by Grameen Telecom, a non-profit organization solely established by Grameen Bank to manage the Bank’s interests in telecommunications. Grameen Telecom is a 35% shareholder of GrameenPhone Ltd., the company that was awarded a nationwide license for GSM 900 cellular mobile phone on November 11, 1996. Telenor Invest AS has a 51% stake, Marubeni corporation of Japan has 9.5% and Gonophone, a New Your-based company, has 4.5% of the shares of GrameenPhone Ltd.
Today Grameen Phone is a commercial operation providing cellular services in both urban and rural areas and already has 30,000 customers. Grameen Phone is proceeding with an initial funding of $125 million, including a $50 million loan from International Finance Corporation, Asian Development Bank and Commonwealth Development Corporation in Britain.
Grameen Telecom selects women to run the Grameen Phone on the basis of her past borrowings with the Grameen Bank. She is favoured as a right candidate if she has demonstrated clear skills in learning new things . It would be better if her house is located centrally in the village. Grameen Telecom also ensures that at least one member of the family knows the English letters and numbers.
The integration of information technology with Banking system, has created a powerful economic force for the rural Bangladesh. This system is unleashing the enterpreneurial energy of the poor thus uplifting themselves. Grameen Phone is certainly an exmple which shows that how technology can chage the fate of the people that too millions.